Handicapping Mistakes Part # 1:
We are always looking for edges or angles to help maximize profit.
Be careful.
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Many are either antiquated, misunderstood, or just don’t work.
I will be forwarding many that will help you make lots.
For now, let's look at things to avoid.
Keeping this simple to start:
I. Obsolescence:
Angles that have been useful in the past often don’t work for the following reasons.
- Smart money has already been incorporated and the edge is lost.
- Rule changes
- Live Betting: Some books have taken away our advantage by putting delays on our accounts.
II. Trends:
- Can be found on most handicapping sites.
- They are only valuable in very specific situations, otherwise they mean virtually nothing against the spread.
- They have limited data sets. Almost all even out over time.
- Trend handicappers lose money.
III. Fallacies:
- Teams win more after a Bye Week. This is true, but they don’t cover more ATS
- The Revenge Factor: This used to be a good one…… 20 years ago. It’s already built into most lines, if it means anything at all.
IV. Finally:
Don’t be a fan. Admit it, we usually overvalue our geographical allegiances. When I first starting writing, one of my mentors was a sports journalism professor and editor for a major newspaper.
He told me that; “To be objective you need to be less of an enthusiast for your hometown team."
I didn't think this was possible. I have been a fan for 40 years.
But.... in the long run it turns out to be prophetic advice for two reasons.
- We over-value our favorite teams
- Local bookmaker or PPH lines often favor the opposition more in their localities because:
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- They need to balance the books.
- They can get away with it.
More to come!
John
20241002_005