PICK 51 - NCAAF - The Florida State Seminoles at The Duke Blue Devils - Friday October 18, 2024
The Florida State Seminoles at The Duke Blue Devils
Friday, October 18, 2024
Released to our subscribers on Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Duke’s rushing offense is 111th with one of the easiest strength of schedules in college football outside of the MAC conference.
Their quarterback, from Texas, has a strong arm, but is not usually a big threat to run. He has minus 54 yards rushing this season, and yes you heard that correctly, minus 54 yards rushing.
The Blue Devil offense hasn’t been efficient all year. They are 104th in EPA per Play and outside the top 125 in EPA per Rush.
Both teams are coming back from a week off.
Duke just lost their first game. Last week 5 of 6 teams that had lost their first games did not cover. In the same corresponding week last season all 6 teams that lost their first game of the season did not cover in their next.
Note: Two of those teams weren’t used in the example, because they played each other.
The Seminole’s recruiting rank was 22nd in 2023, it’s often even higher, while Duke’s was 60th.
Florida State is looking for a reset. They’ve made offensive line changes and are incorporating younger heavily recruited talent.
It looks like The Seminoles two biggest problems are motivation after last year’s bowl implosion and making poor decisions in the transfer portal.
Duke is 0-22 against Florida State.
Hopefully for us, they go 0-23.
While this line doesn't have as much value as when released, we still like the Florida State Seminoles +3 and a half.
www.precisionhandicapping.com
Follow us on Twitter @EVPrecision