The Baylor Bears Vs. the LSU Tigers
In the Kinder's Texas Bowl
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Released to our subscribers on Monday, December 30, 2024
There's an interesting bowl stat I've researched that has a sample size large enough to consider. It favors Baylor. LSU is gaining and losing lots of players in the transfer portal. Gone are their top two tight ends. One to the portal, the other to the draft.
In addition, they're losing backup quarterback Rickie Collins, but Baylor is also losing their backup quarterback. The Bears really don't have any losses I would call significant. They only had 3 wins last season, and seemed to have turned things around.
FYI, other teams that only had 3 or less wins last year won bowl games in 2024 (Vanderbilt & UConn).
Maybe I'm proven wrong, but LSU doesn't seem like a dominant team right now. They were embarrassed by Alabama, and could have lost to South Carolina if the Gamecocks quarterback wasn't injured in the first half. LSU Star tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. have both declared for the 2025 NFL draft.
There's a chance left guard Garrett Dellinger(LSU) will not play. The line thinks so. The Bears and their quarterback are improving. They'll be going for their 7th win in a row on New Year's Eve day.
The most significant losses for Baylor are on defense. They won’t have safety Corey Gordon and defensive end Trey Wilson. These are probably not game-changing.
In addition, Baylor's coach is the former LSU defensive coordinator-Dave Aranda.
The Bears are a young team that won't be affected by draft opt-outs.
I like The Baylor Bears -3.5
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