NFL Players Chasing Bonuses and Records in the Final Week

The final week of the NFL season presents even more betting challenges than usual. Some teams are locked into playoff positions, some are eliminated, and others are in "must win" situations. There's so much uncertainty about who might actually be playing. This gives the well-researched even more positive EV betting opportunities. 

Players on the verge of achieving bonuses and setting records offer lots of advantageous situations for Player Prop bets. As we've seen in the past, coaches and even team management often look to accommodate these players when possible.

Below is a detailed look at some players that can achieve specific milestones.

It should be noted that:  Sometimes contract terms can be difficult to verify.  We have sourced our contract information from two independent resources and the stat data from two well-known providers.  We believe this information to be accurate, but some of the contract terms could be slightly different.

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Seattle Seahawks at Los Angels Rams – Sunday January 5, 2025 – 4:25PM ET

Geno Smith – QB – Seattle Seahawks

Bonuses $2,000,000 each for each…

1. Passing Yards (4,282)
2. Completion % (69.755)
3. Wins (10) or a Playoff Berth

Smith has a total of $6,000,000 in bonus money on the line this week, and all of it achievable.

Notes:

• The Seahawks are already eliminated from the playoffs.
• The Rams have already clinched their Division but are still would be playing for seeding if Tampa Bay wins their 1PM ET game against the Saints.
• The Rams are ranked 21^st in Pass Defense

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday January 5, 2025 – 1:00PM ET

Baker Mayfield – QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bonuses

1. Top 5 Passer Rating
2. Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC in Completion %
3. Top 10 NFL or Top 5 NFC in Yards/Attempt

Mayfield is currently in the money for all 3 of these and should have them locked up.  The only one that could be an issue is Yards Per Attempt.

Mike Evans – WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bonus
$3,000,000 if he gets 70 catches, 1,000 REC Yds, and 10 TDs – Must meet all three requirements

Definitely achievable.  Already has the TD’s and needs a very “get-able” number of receptions and yards.

$3,000,000 if all 3 Bonus Levels are met:

Notes:

• The Buccaneers need to win.
• The Saints have already been eliminated.
• The Saints are ranked 27th in Pass Defense
  
  

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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys - Sunday January 5, 2024 – 1PM ET

Zach Ertz – TE – Washington Commanders

Bonuses

1. Receptions - $250,000 each for 60, 70, 80
2. Receiving Yards - $250,000 each for 600, 700, 800
3. Touchdowns - $250,000 each for 6, 8

Ertz has a series of staggered incentives, three of which are still achievable. Would need a big game to get all three, but not out of the realm of possibility against the Cowboys defense.

Dante Fowler – DE - Washington Commanders

Bonus

11 Sacks - $1,500,000

Notes:

• Commanders are locked into the playoffs but still playing for seeding.
• The Cowboys are eliminated.
• The Cowboys Pass Defense ranks 20^th.
• Dallas has given up the 19^th most Sacks in the League

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Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos - Sunday January 5, 2025 – 4:25PM ET

Deandre Hopkins – WR – Kansas City Chiefs

Bonuses

1. Receptions - 65: $250,000
2. Receiving Yards - 750: $250,000
3. Touchdowns - 6: $500,000

Assuming he plays at all, 2 out of 3 of these are a reach, be he could be used in Red Zone situations looking for the 1 TD.

Courtland Sutton – WR – Denver Broncos

Bonus
$500,000 for 1,065 Receiving Yards

Sutton averages 66 receiving yards per game, certainly not a stretch to see him getting this especially in a must win against a Chiefs team sitting starters.

Bonus

15 Total TD's - $500,000

Ravens need to win, and Henry should get his usual bunch of touches.

Notes:

• The Broncos need to win and will be playing all starters.
• To make the playoffs, Denver either needs to win or needs help from both the Bengals (who play Saturday) and Dolphins (who will be playing at the same time as the Broncos)
• Kansas City has nothing to play for and will be resting starters.
• Kansas City (starters) rank 14^th in Pass Defense
• Denver’s Pass Defense ranks 25^th.

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens - Saturday January 4, 2025, 4:30PM ET
Derrick Henry – RB – Baltimore Ravens

Bonus

15 Total TD's - $500,000

Ravens need to win, and Henry should get his usual bunch of touches.

JUSTICE HILL – RB – Baltimore Ravens

Bonus

50 Total Receptions

Notes:

• Ravens need to win and will be playing all starters.
• Browns are eliminated.
• Browns are ranked 19^th in Rush Defense
• Browns are ranked 20^th in Pass Defense

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans- Sunday January 5, 2025, 1PM ET
Tony Pollard – RB – Tennessee Titans

Bonuses

1. 1100 Rush Yds: $250,000
2. 7 Rush TDs: $200,000
   
   

Pollard’s been hurt/sick but expected to play this week.

Notes:

• The Titans are eliminated.
• Texans secured Division but can improve/maintain their seeding with win.
• Houston is ranked 12th in Rush Defense

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Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders – Sunday January 5, 2024 – 4:25PM ET

JK Dobbins – RB – Los Angeles Chargers

Bonus

Rushing Yards – 900 - $150,000

Notes:

• The Raiders are eliminated.
• The Chargers are locked into a Wild Card spot but can improve their seeding.
• The Raiders are ranked 11^th in Rush Defense

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday January 5, 2025 1PM ET

Josh Sweat –LB – Philadelphia Eagles

Bonus

1. 8 Sacks $500,000
2. 10 Sacks $1,000,000
3. 11 Sacks $1,500,000
4. 12 Sacks $2,000,000

Included the payout up to the unlikely number of 12 sacks.

Uncertain how much, if any, playing time that Sweat will get but, you have to believe he would like a chance at 2 Sacks for $1,000,000.

Notes:

1. The Eagles have nothing to play for.
2. The Giants have been eliminated.
3. The Giants have given up the 8^th most Sacks in the League.

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Minnesota Viking at Detroit Lions - Sunday January 5, 2025 8:20PM ET

Za'Darius Smith – DE – Detroit Lions
Bonus

1. 10 Sacks: $250,000
2. 12 Sacks: $500,000
   
   

Both teams will be playing to win.  Smith will need a huge game, but 10 Sacks is possible.

Notes:

• The Vikings have given up the 9^th most sacks in the League.

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals - Sunday January 5, 2025 4:25PM ET

Kyler Murray – QB – Arizona Cardinals

Bonus

1. $750,000 - Must get both 600 yards Rushing and score 6 Rushing TD's
   
   
   

Notes:

• The 49ers have the 17th ranked Rushing Defense

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday January 5, 2025 1PM ET
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders – Sunday January 5, 2024 – 4:25PM ET

Malik Nabers – WR – New York Giants
Brock Bowers – TE – Las Vegas Raiders

Rookie Records for Receptions and Receiving Yards

This is an interesting one.

Nabers plays in the early game and will be chasing Bowers who plays in an afternoon game.

Nabers enters his game needing 4 receptions and 4 yards to catch Bowers.

Whatever Nabers puts up, Bowers will know what he needs to beat him by kickoff.

Nabers and Bowers are the only two bright spots in otherwise terrible seasons for the rest of their teams.  I would look for both to get a significant number of targets in their respective games.

Notes:

• The Giants are eliminated.
• The Raiders are eliminated.
• Nabers will be going up against the Eagles number one ranked Passing Defense, but starters will be sitting.
• Bowers will be going up the Chargers 8^th ranked Passing Defense who have something to play for.
  
  

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