I. Beware of Obsolescence:
We’re always looking for edges or angles to help maximize profit.
But be careful.
Many are either antiquated, misunderstood or just don’t work.
Throughout the season I'll continue forwarding many that will improve your cash flow.
Successful Older Angles often don’t work for the following reasons.
1) Smart money has incorporated, and the edge is lost.
2) Rule changes make them obsolete.
3) Sample sizes were too small, and they never worked in the first place.
II. Trends:
Can be found on most handicapping sites.
Do not confuse trends with stats used in our models.
If a trend has any merit, it is already built into the line, and most even out over time.
Some of the most well-known and popular trend handicappers win less than 50% of their games.
Here’s a trend you might find from a so-called analyst;
“Ohio State has won 8 out of 9 bowl games ATS since 2013 after winning their final regular game of the season. Therefore, Ohio State is a great bet today.”
What happened 10 years ago will have absolutely no bearing on the outcome of a game.
There are enough differences to consider week to week, let alone over a decade.
Trends have limited data sets.
Trend handicappers lose money.
No "Locks" or nonsense "Games of the Year".
My only guarantee is to do my obsessive best.
It usually works.
John